Take-Two调整游戏发布时间表 《GTA6》或于2026财年发布

在Take-Two Interactive发布的2024财年Q3业绩电话会议上，GTA VI不出意外地多次成为讨论焦点。面对来自BMO Capital Markets分析师关于Take-Two和Rockstar如何敲定游戏发布日期的问题，Take-Two CEO斯特劳斯·泽尔尼克回应表示：

“我们始终坚持追求卓越。只有当我们认为在创新和创作上达到最优状态时，才会选择发布游戏。我们团队上下一心，共同进退。从激励机制上看，公司的每一位成员所获得的经济回报均与股东利益紧密相连。

实际上，我们设置了各种形式的利润共享计划，不仅在公司运营层面上实施，高层管理人员的薪酬也很大程度上取决于TSR的表现。我们旨在让全体员工与股东的利益诉求相统一，从而确保大家步调一致，共同努力。你所说的快速推向市场与追求完美之间的矛盾的确存在，不过在我们公司，我们会毫不犹豫地选择追求完美。”

泽尔尼克的上述答复或许间接表明GTA VI的发布时间可能会比预想的要晚，因为追求游戏品质上的极致就意味着可能会推迟上线。实际情况似乎也印证了这一点：Take-Two对2025财年（2024年4月至2025年3月）的净预定额预测进行了下调，从原先预计的超80亿美元降至当前略高于70亿美元。这不禁让人猜测GTA VI的发布可能不会落在那个时段内。然而，首席财务官莱尼·戈德斯坦在前一天指出：

“根据最新的数据，本财年净预定额预计将略高于70亿美元，考虑到我们预测过程中的常规微调，这一数字依然体现了显著的增长。展望未来，我们明年及以后的产品线极具突破性，各个开发团队都在游戏制作上取得了显著进展。”

有分析师对净预定额预测的降低提出疑问，对此，戈德斯坦回应：

“对于2025财年净预定额的预测下降，主要原因是我们调整了游戏发布的时间表。鉴于这种情况，部分游戏项目会被推迟至未来的财年发布，但请注意，我们旗下游戏的整体生命周期价值并没有发生变化。我们依旧预计2026财年的净预定额会较2025财年有所增长，这一点并无改变。”

据此可以判断，Take-Two确实调整了部分游戏的发布计划，并期望在2026财年实现更大的净预定额目标。

GTA VI was unsurprisingly brought up several times during Take-Two's Q3 2024 earnings call. When an analyst from BMO Capital Markets asked how the publisher and Rockstar would settle on the release date, Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick said in response:
We're seeking perfection. And when we feel we've optimized creatively, that's the time to release. And we're all in this together. In terms of motivations and incentives, the financial incentives of everyone who works at this company are aligned with those of the shareholders.
So we essentially have — call it what you will, we have profit sharing plans throughout the company at the operating level and at the senior level, compensation is driven largely by TSR. So, our goal is to align the interest of everyone who works there with the interest of the shareholders. That keeps us all pointing in the same direction. So you're right; there's inherent tension potentially between getting something to market and creating perfection, but this company errs on the side of perfection.
This kind of reply alone could be taken as a hint of a later-than-anticipated release window, as seeking perfection in game development means delaying a launch. Indeed, Take-Two's net bookings forecast change also goes in that direction: the company previously estimated over $8 billion in net bookings for fiscal year 2025 (April 2024 – March 2025), leading analysts to believe the GTA VI launch would be in that timeframe. However, Chief Financial Officer Lainie Goldstein said yesterday:
At this time, the number is tracking a little above $7 billion for net bookings for the year and given the typical shifts in tweaks that occur in our forecasting process. This amount is still huge growth over this year. Our pipeline is groundbreaking for next year and beyond, and teams are making excellent progress on game development.
When an analyst questioned the reduction in the forecast, Goldstein replied:
For fiscal year '25, as I mentioned, it's really driven by changes in the release schedule. And obviously, that will move some of the titles out into years going forward because the lifetime value of our portfolio hasn't changed. We do expect to see growth in fiscal year '26 over '25, so that hasn't changed.
So, there have been changes in the release schedule, and Take-Two expects even bigger net bookings for fiscal year 2026. As if all that wasn't enough, the publisher shared the updated roadmap of its announced titles, with GTA VI mentioned for 'calendar 2025'.
At this point, it's clear the game is targeting a launch in fiscal year 2026, possibly in Fall 2025. Take-Two still has an interesting lineup for fiscal year 2025 with games like No Rest for the Wicked from Moon Studios, Tales of the Shire from Wētā Workshop, Star Wars Hunters and Game of Thrones: Legends from Zynga. Then there are Hangar 13's Top Spin 2K25, which should be out relatively soon as Take-Two said the release date will be shared in the coming weeks, and Judas from Ghost Story Games. The latter is still technically TBA, but maybe we'll get it at some point in fiscal year 2025.
By the way, GTA VI's debut trailer helped with sales of existing GTA products, according to Strauss Zelnick. GTA V has now sold more than 195 million copies, while Red Dead Redemption 2 is at 61 million units.